A rapidly strengthening El Niño weather pattern could bring severe flooding, disease outbreaks and food insecurity to millions of people across East Africa and parts of Asia, according to a humanitarian organisation.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) warned on Monday that Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan are among the countries facing the highest risk. Many of these nations are already grappling with humanitarian crises driven by conflict, displacement and climate-related disasters.
The warning follows new forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center, which said on 9 July that El Niño is intensifying rapidly. Forecasters estimate there is an 81% chance that it will become one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950, with peak conditions expected between October and December.
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that El Niño conditions had already developed and were expected to strengthen significantly between July and September.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain described the development as “an enormous story of huge consequence for the world”, noting that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are already at record levels for this time of year.
Aid organisations warn that many communities expected to be affected are already under severe strain following prolonged drought, conflict and reductions in humanitarian funding, leaving them with limited capacity to cope with further climate shocks.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years, when weakening trade winds allow warm ocean waters to spread eastward. The phenomenon alters global weather patterns, often increasing rainfall in some regions while bringing drought to others.
In East Africa, El Niño is usually associated with below-average rainfall during the middle of the year, followed by heavier-than-normal rains between October and December. Meteorologists say this year’s event is likely to be intensified by unusually warm waters in the Indian Ocean, increasing the risk of widespread flooding.
Somalia has already experienced repeated flooding in parts of the capital, Mogadishu, following periods of heavy rainfall earlier this year.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a US-funded food security monitoring organisation, has warned of a credible risk of famine in parts of southern Somalia if flooding later this year reaches the scale seen during major El Niño events in 1997 or 2023. Those floods submerged farmland, destroyed livelihoods and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
