Recent reports suggest that Egyptian military personnel may soon be deployed to the Gedo Zone of Jubaland State, one of Somalia’s five federal member states. At first glance, this move could be interpreted as an expression of solidarity with Somalia. However, the choice of location, the timing, and the wider political context raise serious concerns about its potential implications for the Horn of Africa.
Gedo is not an ungoverned space. It is one of the more stable areas in southern Somalia, secured through the joint sacrifices of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Jubaland’s security forces. Years of military coordination and community resilience have denied Al-Shabaab a foothold there. Just two weeks ago, Ethiopian and Jubaland security forces launched a large-scale operation in and around the town of Doolow, near the Ethiopian border. The joint campaign extends to key road networks connecting the districts of Doolow, Luuq, and Beled Hawo. According to authorities, the operation is intended to counter threats posed by al-Shabaab militants and safeguard civilians.
If Egypt’s intent was genuinely to support Somalia’s fight against terrorism, its troops would logically be deployed in areas where Al-Shabaab still operates: rural districts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and the hinterlands around Mogadishu. The decision to target Gedo instead suggests a different agenda: geopolitical positioning, with Ethiopia at the center of the equation.
Jubaland’s stability is directly tied to Ethiopia’s security. Gedo shares a long border with Ethiopia’s Somali Region, and instability in one inevitably spills over into the other. Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia has not been cost-free; it has demanded lives, resources, and long-term commitments. Yet, Ethiopia has remained engaged, not as an external power seeking influence, but as a neighbor safeguarding regional peace. Undermining Jubaland weakens Ethiopia’s security architecture. Undermining Ethiopia, in turn, destabilizes the Horn of Africa. This triangular relationship makes external interference in Gedo more than a local issue; it is a regional security concern with potentially destabilizing consequences.
The policy direction of Somalia’s Federal Government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud requires careful reconsideration. Attempts to balance Ethiopia on one side and distant actors like Egypt on the other create uncertainty at a time when clarity is urgently needed. Ethiopia is not simply another external stakeholder; it is a neighbor that has consistently sacrificed for Somalia’s security. Somalia’s leadership must therefore ask itself a difficult question: does the pursuit of distant alliances outweigh the value of stable relations with neighbors who share borders, history, and sacrifices? A strategy of “chasing between two rocks” risks alienating the very partner most invested in Somalia’s stability.
Equally critical is the internal political dimension. Jubaland and Puntland remain central to Somalia’s federal system. Excluding or antagonizing them undermines the fragile project of federal state-building. Instead, the Federal Government should prioritize dialogue and compromise. President Hassan Sheikh must engage constructively with Jubaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) and Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Deni. Building consensus among federal member states is not optional—it is the only viable path toward a functioning Somali state.
The Horn of Africa stands at a delicate crossroads. One path leads toward cooperation, regional ownership of security, and a stronger federal Somalia. The other risks deepening fragmentation and inviting external rivalries into already fragile spaces. Ethiopia and Jubaland must continue to reinforce their partnership. The Federal Government of Somalia must clarify its policies, strengthen its engagement with Ethiopia, and build trust with federal member states. The alternative is a cycle of mistrust, external interference, and renewed instability. The stakes are clear: peace in Jubaland means peace in Ethiopia. Peace in Ethiopia means stability for the entire Horn of Africa. Outsiders cannot dictate this future; it must be shaped by the region itself. AS
