True statesmanship is measured not by the accumulation of power, but by the ability to unite fractured nations and prioritize collective survival above personal ambition.
Nowhere is this test of leadership more urgent than in Somalia, where institutional fragility and extremism threaten the very existence of the state. Effective leadership is not just desirable but an existential necessity.
When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to power in 2022, his re-election was met with cautious optimism. Having transitioned from a former president to an opposition figure, he positioned himself as Somalia’s chief reconciler, pledging to mend divisions and foster national consensus.
Three years later, that hope has transformed into a bitter recognition: Somalia remains ensnared in the persistent cycle of clan politics, security failures, and governance crises that have defined its lost decades.
The president’s poetic vision of a “Somalia at peace with itself and the world” now rings hollow. Instead of bridging divides, his administration has become emblematic of how not to govern a fragile state.
The crisis of legitimacy
Governance efficacy hinges on perceived legitimacy—the collective belief that authority is exercised justly and in service of the public interest. In Somalia’s post-conflict context, achieving this is exceptionally difficult due to entrenched clan divisions, historical grievances, and external interference.
Regrettably, the current administration has exacerbated these challenges through exclusionary governance, marginalizing dissenting voices, particularly federal member states like Puntland and Jubbaland, as well as opposition politicians. This approach has deepened political fractures rather than healing them.
Threat of al-Shabaab
The Somali National Army’s struggles against al-Shabaab reveal deeper institutional weaknesses. Recent tactical retreats highlight critical gaps in strategic planning and operational capacity, stemming from three core issues:
- Strategic Vacuum: The absence of a coherent, long-term counterterrorism strategy.
- Resource Deficits: Chronic underfunding and logistical shortcomings.
- Systemic Governance Erosion: The replacement of meritocratic appointments with patronage networks, weakening institutional integrity.
Compounding these failures, the administration has manipulated parliamentary processes to evade accountability, fostering a culture of impunity that further erodes public trust.
Political polarisation
President Mohamud’s unilateral decision-making on constitutional amendments, electoral reforms, and the appointment of a partisan electoral commission has triggered a dual crisis of governance and security. By sidelining consensus-building, his administration has alienated federal member states and opposition groups, undermining the fragile unity essential for inclusive politics and state-building.
The consequences are stark: both Jubbaland and Puntland now function independently of Mogadishu’s coordination channels, creating parallel governance structures at a time when confronting Al-Shabaab demands absolute unity.
Erratic foreign policy
Somalia’s foreign policy under President Mohamud has been marked by strategic inconsistencies, weakening the nation’s diplomatic standing when global solidarity is most needed. The lack of a coherent, long-term engagement strategy has eroded confidence among key bilateral partners and multilateral institutions.
Of particular concern is the failure to establish a sustainable funding mechanism or clear transition plan for the AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), coupled with insufficient investment in building autonomous national security capabilities. These policy gaps have created operational vacuums that armed groups exploit with growing sophistication.
Pathways to stabilisation
Somalia’s governance challenges are systemic, rooted in structural deficiencies that no single administration can resolve alone. Yet, the gravity of the current crisis demands urgent action to prevent further destabilization. Two critical priorities must guide this intervention:
- Formation of a technocratic government: A new administration led by a competent prime minister and staffed by qualified professionals is essential. This team must develop a comprehensive counter-insurgency strategy, ensure operational coordination between federal and regional forces, and establish a time-bound transition plan with verifiable benchmarks for Somali forces to assume full security responsibilities.
- Genuine political reconciliation: All stakeholders—federal states, opposition groups, and civil society—must engage in structured negotiations to establish an inclusive electoral framework, ensuring transparency and international oversight.
Somalia’s resilience is undeniable, but its potential can only be realised through leadership that prioritizes nation over faction, strategy over short-term tactics, and legitimacy over political expediency. The alternative—continued cyclical instability—remains untenable for both Somalia and the region.
By: Abdirahman Abdishakur
MPSomali Federal Parliament
The writer is a member of the Somali Federal Parliament, an opposition politician, the leader of the Wadajir Party, and a presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections.
